Never Split the Difference

Last week, I received a letter from my home insurance company saying, ‘First, the difficult news: your insurance premium has gone up. While we understand this increase is not what you expected for your renewal, it reflects the high number of insurance claims we have paid over the past year, particularly for burst pipes and water damage. These are now one of the most common claims insurers see due to cold weather patterns and pressure on plumbing systems. It also reflects the rising costs of materials and specialist labour to make good the damage to our customer’s homes and possessions.’

This paragraph piqued my interest—why, if the earth is getting warmer, did my insurance company blame cold weather patterns for their price increases?

Many people have been affected by the rise in interest rates and the cost of living. I was talking to David Nield (check out his podcast on ‘How to Keep Your Money Episode 23 ‘Jobocalpse Now’), who said that his son had to return home due to rising living costs. My literary agent has also had to rethink his career since the market for books no longer covers his mortgage. He has retrained as a life coach! These people have options—there are others who don’t.

I wanted to explore whether the cost of living explosion has increased crime such as burglary and theft. According to the Huffington Post data from the face-to-face Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), theft decreased by 19%, and burglary decreased by 28%. However, the Office of National Statistics warned that this data on face-to-face crime was for the period between October 2021 and June 2022 as compared to the pre-Covid year ending March 2020. The impact of COVID-19 distorted these figures. I needed to look at more recent data.

The National Crime Agency, in July 2023, painted a very different story. It predicted a surge in burglary, car thefts, and robbery as criminal gangs react to the rising expenses of everyday life by trying to make money through criminal behaviour.

According to The Standard newspaper, Graeme Biggar head of the National Crime Agency, said that criminal gangs had already ‘exploited the cost of living crisis’ to put ‘more people at risk of crime and that the threat they posed was continuing to grow’.

The National Crime Agency said that 59,000 organised criminals were active in this country or targeting this country from abroad, making an estimated £12 billion in criminal profits each year—and this sum is not declared in any self-assessment tax return.

Unlike opportunistic burglars or thieves, criminal gangs are likelier to cause bodily harm; I refer you to Jane Gilbert’s podcast in Episode 5 of ‘How to Keep Your Money’. Jane is a specialist in Ransom Insurance. She has shared chilling tales of ears being cut off and sent by post to the father of the kidnapped son. Reassuringly, she says this is less common now- but it is nevertheless - worrisome - not for you and me of comparatively modest means but for the actual targets of criminal gangs - the rich.

Chris Voss’s book, Never Split the Difference, gives an insight into the world of kidnapping, extortion, and robbery. Voss spent some time policing the rough streets of Kansas City, Missouri, before he joined the FBI, where he became a kidnapper negotiator. It brought him face-to-face with bank robbers, gang leaders and terrorists.

Never Split the Difference introduces us to high-stakes negotiations, revealing the nine fundamental principles that helped Voss and his colleagues succeed when lives were at stake. Incidentally, Voss’s nine principles are as relevant to negotiating with a partner as to where to go on holiday, as an employee seeking a raise, or in business negotiations.

However, unlike negotiating a holiday, dealing with criminal gangs involves the lives and well-being of your nearest and dearest. In this case, it is better to be safe than sorry if you are rich and take advice from a close protection security specialist like Bob Morrison, our podcast professional this week, who can advise not only where a family may be at most risk but also what can be done to minimise the danger.